London (29.07.2020) –
Einer heute, Mittwoch, erscheinenden Untersuchung der London School of Economics (LSE) http://lse.ac.uk zufolge blüht der britischen Wirtschaft in Verbindung mit COVID-19 ein doppelter Brexit-Schock, unabhängig davon, ob Premierminister Boris Johnson noch einen Deal mit der EU aushandelt oder nicht. Denn eben die Brexit-Folgen werden auch und besonders jene Wirtschaftszweige treffen, die unter der Pandemie nicht allzu stark leiden, berichtet “The Guardian”.
Zangenangriff auf Wirtschaft
“Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass die vom Brexit betroffenen Sektoren und jene, die unter der COVID-19-Pandemie und dem Lockdown leiden, sich im Allgemeinen voneinander unterscheiden”, sagt Swati Dhingra, Wirtschaftsprofessorin an der LSE. Die Pandemie trifft vor allem Wirtschaftszweige, in denen menschlicher Kontakt wichtig ist, wie Gastgewerbe, Hotellerie oder Kunst und Kultur. Bereiche wie Industrie, Buchhaltungs- und Rechtsdienstleistungen sowie das Verlagswesen, in denen Home Office zumindest in Teilen gut funktioniert, leiden unter COVID-19 weniger.
Eben in solchen Zweigen dürften der LSE-Analyse nach, die Daten aus einer monatlichen Umfrage unter Mitgliedern der Confederation of British Industry http://cbi.org.uk nutzt, aber die Brexit-Folgen vergleichsweise stark greifen. Denn eben für diese sind neue Hemmnisse spürbar, die für den Handel mit Waren und Dienstleistungen entstehen, etwa in Sachen Übertragen von Daten aus der EU nach Großbritannien oder einfach durch nötige Zollerklärungen. Der “gleichzeitge Impakt” von COVID-19 und Brexit wird laut LSE bereits ab Herbst zu spüren sein, wenn zeitweilige Regelungen zur Arbeitslosenunterstützung auslaufen und das neue Handelsumfeld beginnt.
Politik ist nun gefordert
“Die Regierung muss von ihren breit gefassten Einschätzungen der Brexit-Auswirkungen zu viel feiner getunten Plänen übergehen”, um sich auf die “größte Verlangsamung unseres Lebens” vorzubereiten, meint vor diesem Hintergrund Studien-Koautor Josh de Lyon, Forschungsassitent an der LSE. Dhingra wiederum warnt, dass die COVID-19-Pandemie “die Fähigkeit der britischen Wirtschaft verringert, weitere Schocks zu ertragen”. Den Brexit durchzupeitschen, würde die Anzahl der Sektoren vergrößern, die mit verschlechterten Geschäftsbedingungen konfrontiert sind.
Thomas Pichler,
pichler@pressetext.com
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